Moneyball Chart 12-4-17

Published On December 3, 2017 » 575 Views» Feature Chart


Top 25 Most Reactive Christmas Songs

Chart Explanation 12-4-17

Last week’s Top 25 Best Testing Christmas Moneyball Chart evoked conversation with several programmers about Christmas titles, currents and how many years it would actually take for a song to gain enough familiarity to be worthy of bringing back year to year.

It has taken some work, but, with help from a couple of the format’s most noteworthy Christmas stations, we have been able to find some info that can help for years to come.

For brand new Christmas titles, it appears that if they have the ability to come back year to year, you could actually gauge that through callout, as I recommended doing, if Christmas is at all any part of your real yearly strategy.

Utilizing Lauren Daigle’s “Light Of The World,” we are able to see that the airplay grew from 2013 to 2014, but in 2015, as her place in our format was becoming imprinted with potential longevity, the song gained its greatest traction.

Having done research back in those years, I can clearly track Lauren being the 28th overall testing Christmas song in 2015 with 58% familiarity to becoming the strongest song in 2016 reaching beyond 87% familiarity.

With Christmas, since most of us are dealing with 4, maybe 5 weeks of Christmas titles rotating, let’s say our strongest songs play 50 times a week.  That would mean for a song to even be worthy of researching, if we believe most songs get indications from 300 to 500 plays, it would take a minimum of three years for any song to get legitimately familiar, and if most of our powers hit beyond 1000 total plays, we’d have to double those years to get a Christmas song the same amount of play our typical powers would get while they are in their greatest period of momentum.

So, what is a Christmas Current?  I believe it’s any song that you’ve been building year to year, to eventually get the greatest fruit from it, in years 5 and year 6.  Yes, that long.  So Jeremy Camp’s 2012 offerings and Francesca Battistelli’s “You’re Here,” are in their prime.

As we researched this week’s MONEYBALL Chart, seeking the MOST REACTIVE Christmas songs since 2012, we noticed a bad habit many station’s make, in that if they committed to a song last year, like For King & Country’s “Glorious,” they don’t necessarily start out this year with that song even in the mix.

If Christmas is part of our yearly strategy, we have to KNOW what our strengths were when we packed the music in for the season.  If we just start cold year to year, we’re not allowing last year’s gains to create this year’s GREATER Time Spent Listening.  Instead we start fresh, and hope for the best.

That being said, there is no question that THIS is the year of Daigle and For King & Country, with FK&C’s live album leading in sales, in fact appearing in the Top 200 alongside pop and country offerings and classics like Bing Crosby and whatnot, is quite impressive.

Based on all factors from airplay, research, sales, streaming and online activity, FK&C has 5 of the top currents including their explosive new version of “Little Drummer Boy,” which is partly fueled by the video, which is a Top 10 iTunes selling video, not in CCM but against every music video out at the moment.

Put that one of your website, promote it to your audience and watch your FB or website numbers explode.

Lauren Daigle’s original version of “Light of The World,” is at #2, while “Noel,” Tomlin’s song featuring Lauren is at #5, and her version of “Jingle Bells,” also makes the top 10.

While there are many great versions of “Mary Did You Know,” it’s Danny Gokey’s version that research indicates is worthy of Top 5 most reactive, while Jeremy Camp’s version makes it high on the list as well.

Both Gokey and Camp have more than a couple songs on this week’s Top 25.

Leading this year’s new Christmas songs, following FK&C’s live drummer boy, is Casting Crown’s, the only other new song in the Top 10, with “Gloria/Angel’s We Have Heard On High”

Francesca Battistelli’s “Messiah” is at #12, and the final three, which are from Marc Martel, whose voice most notably makes DOWNHERE’s How Many Kings a classic in our format at this time, offers a phenomenal version of “It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas;” Zach Williams who gives us “The Call of Christmas,” and then worth noting, is a song from Mallory Hope “Just A Baby (Mary’s Song).”  When Lauren Daigle first gave us “Light of the World,” we didn’t know anything about her, as she had yet to have a hit at the format. 

It’s nice to see Mallory Hope with a Christmas song connecting because Lauren Daigle is proving, this isn’t a bad road to take.

Feel free to continue dialoguing with me via email, Facebook or on my cell, 646-745-4290.

And may the Savior’s birth, be heightened by his death, his resurrection and his continued life inside of you.

God Bless You… Rob

The Moneyball Chart Methodology

Instead of one chart that focuses specifically on airplay, the Moneyball Chart combines airplay with sales, streaming and research for the purpose of finding the Momentum in Music, which is most times the differentiator on songs that stall and the ones that continue to chug along.

The Moneyball Chart is created based on a points system, where each column of information can add a maximum of up to 10 points for that column, with the points from each column adding to the overall totals.

The Moneyball Chart is an indicator of songs that are working; songs that are bearing fruit and therefore the Moneyball Chart, may have drastic differences from the charts you have become accustom to, revealing some artists and titles in a higher position much earlier than they show up on the airplay charts, and also, often songs that have moved to recurrent on most of our playlists continue to show fruit indicating that we may have retired those titles too early.

The Moneyball system works Nationally, or locally, so if you are interested in seeing what this information looks like specific to your station, specific to your market and your competitive situation, let us create a custom sample for your station specifically.  Email Rob Wagman

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